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Author CAM-Gerlach
Recipients CAM-Gerlach, ZackerySpytz, eryksun, izbyshev, lukasz.langa, paul.moore, steve.dower, terry.reedy, tim.golden, vstinner, zach.ware
Date 2020-03-04.15:37:41
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What Eryk said wrt Windows 8 seems sound, looking at some additional data.

Per Statcounter [0], Windows 8 market share has dropped to 1.32% from 2.20% of all Windows users over the past 12 months, or 1.75% -> 1.01% of all desktop users. Extrapolating a constant linear decrease, this would imply a usage share of 0.55-0.60% at Python 3.9 release, or considering a more conservative (and realistic) constant-percent decrease, this would put the amount at 0.75%. For comparison, by Statcounter's same metrics, Windows XP which was EoL 5 versions ago is still at 1.13% of the Windows or 0.90% of the total desktop market today, WinVista is at 0.41%/0.33%, Win8.1 at 4.7%/3.8% (~4x Win8) and of course the EoL and also dropped Windows 7 is at no less than 23.2%/18.5%, nearly 20 times the amount of Win 8 today and dropping more slowly besides.


Conducting a similar analysis with the NetMarketshare data [1], we see a 0.78% -> 0.66% year on year share for Win8, which extrapolates to a 0.57% share at Py2.9 release. Vista is much lower at only 0.15%, but XP is over 2x higher at 1.35%, and Win8.1 well over 5x as large at 3.5%. Windows 7 is, again, at no less than 25.2%, nearly 40x the Win 8 marketshare.


Users likely to be most concerned with wanting or needing to use the latest and greatest version of Python are more than likely to be power users, enthusiasts and developers, a group that was particularly averse to adopting Windows 8 when it came out, was more likely to upgrade to 8.1 , and is more aware of EoL timeframes than the average consumer. This is empirically supported by the Steam survey [2], which samples a population substantially more similar to the profile of a developer than the average web user captured by the previous two surveys. Here, the numbers are much more stark: A mere 0.17% of their >96% Windows userbase runs Windows 8, vs. 2.10% (>10x) for Windows 8.1 and 12.4% for Windows 7 (~75x). Given an infinitesimal fraction of such remaining users are likely going to require upgrading to a bleeding-edge Python version but not their OS that would have been EoL for nearly 5 years, over a year longer than Vista itself  and 4 years longer than 7, I don't think supporting that EoL OS per PEP 11 for another >5+ years with another new Python version need be a priority.

Date User Action Args
2020-03-04 15:37:42CAM-Gerlachsetrecipients: + CAM-Gerlach, terry.reedy, paul.moore, vstinner, tim.golden, lukasz.langa, zach.ware, eryksun, steve.dower, izbyshev, ZackerySpytz
2020-03-04 15:37:42CAM-Gerlachsetmessageid: <>
2020-03-04 15:37:42CAM-Gerlachlinkissue32592 messages
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