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Climate Change - A Humanity Threatening Non-Issue

with 12 comments

The following op ed was offered to the mainsteam media but they declined it. Its author is Bill Henderson, a reader of this blog and a supporter of the BCEN LW list which I am so glad I was able to get onto.

Thanks Bill for your consent to me putting your thoughts on my blog

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Canadians have simply no idea how serious climate change is because they have been and continue to be profoundly mis-educated about climate change - the danger is a slow overall rise in temperature effecting weather and subsequently resources such as water in each differing Canadian region; Canadians have until mid-century to lower emissions and this is possible within our presently configured socio-economy if we all just finally start making smart choices, maybe aided by government incentives.

This convenient conventional wisdom begins with what’s most important - our pre-occupations in this socio-economy - and then selects a climate change conceptualization from climate change science that will fit into this business as usual.

The best selling HOT AIR: Meeting Canada’s Climate Change Challenge by Globe and Mail columnist Jeffrey Simpson, climate change policy specialist Mark Jaccard and researcher Nic Rivers is a perfect example. Published in 2007 by informed Canadian climate change policy insiders, there is no mention of tipping points or latent positive feedbacks, carbon cycle time lags, sinks turning into sources or abrupt, whipsawing climate history.

HOT AIR contains no acknowledgement at all of non-linear climate change. There is no warning education of the increasing probability and immediate danger of runaway, no longer controllable, climate change which is a far greater danger to Canadians than bad weather, drought and bugs from gradual warming. No mention at all. No Hansen. Nothing about methane bubbling up from permafrost. Strictly a long term gradual problem that we can solve within business as usual beginning with thin edge of the wedge mitigation strategies such as the puny BC carbon tax Jaccard and Co turnkeyed for the BC Liberal government.

(This carbon tax debacle itself contributed to wrongfooting Joe Public - if  climate change is a crisis how come the tax is just a few pennies a liter,  much less then the rise in gas prices by oil companies making billions, and then why give the money back to spend instead of investing in renewable energy or efficiency? If climate change is a crisis? Are Canuck or Olympic tickets a smart choice for my rebate if climate change is a crisis?)

Each of the leaders of the parties in this past Federal election understand the increasing probability of humanity threatening danger from non-linear climate change - although some have investments that keep them much more in denial - but not one of them could or did try to inform and educate Canadians about this real climate change danger in the election.

Why? What do the HOT AIR authors and Canada’s political leaders share that rules out  acknowledging climate change’s real, immediate danger? Search out  Thomas Friedman’s ‘golden straightjacket’. Ask yourself just what degree of emission reduction is possible within our service sector dominated Canadian
society?

The emerging literature about mitigation strategies by those who do take climate change seriously - who recognize the melting Arctic as a tipping point, 350 ppm as the precautionary ceiling necessary, 80% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions globally by 2020 as the mitigation target necessary - importantly educate that there is no possibility of emission reduction of  a scale needed within political and economic business as usual. No possibility of needed socio-economic reconfiguration in order to reduce emissions within BAU.

80% by 2020 is the bottom line and is still possible, but it requires profound systemic change in what must be emergency innovated politics and economics. Sutton /Spratt, Lester Brown and Britain’s New Green Deal -
Hundred Months group advocate an update of already tested wartime-style mobilization as the governance innovation needed first to unblock for change.

But this is heresy. None of the party leaders could endanger their team’s electability this election by actually advocating such a needed, precautionary, climate change mitigation strategy. Climate change might be an emergency;  with time lags we might be near if not slipping over a tipping point to an extinction event too terrifying for us to even fully comprehend, but there is no taking climate change seriously in our present
politics.

Elizabeth May, Jack Layton, Gilles Doucette, and Stephane Dion know the science, know the increasing probability of danger, know the mitigation time frames necessary. Harper is PM because he united the right - you’d think that climate change should have been the emergency issue uniting the greens, but that would entail taking climate change seriously.

That would have meant leadership in making climate change the issue, sublimating all other issues, all trivialities and tribalisms, and we’re obviously not there yet. There was no leadership voice explaining the danger and the need to unite.

Alone Dion tried to advance a weak Green Shift but it was political suicide because the mis-educated public isn’t there yet and confused and afraid they didn’t vote or voted for Harper’s safe BAU. And so it goes: lack of leadership, more mis-education, a dumber public, more time wasted …

Written by Stephen Rees

October 21, 2008 at 5:28 pm

Posted in Environment, politics

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12 Responses to 'Climate Change - A Humanity Threatening Non-Issue'

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  1. If indeed Mr.Henderson is right as to tipping points so be it.

    His assessments states that a 80% reduction of GHGs by 2020 as a minimum or we can`t stop global warming,well if that is indeed true then why bother?

    I personally think the max we could acheive by 2020 is maybe a 10% reduction,considering there will be 2 billion more people on earth.

    Canada is only 1% of global emissions, if we were 100% emission free would matter not.

    The only way to meet those targets would be to stop society as we know it,you would have to change society to a communal/no money society,business as usual would end,jobs too.

    One thing I know for sure,a bad carbon tax does more harm than good,with a ill-designed carbon tax you waste years before you admit it did NOTHING! Thus avoiding a REAL effective carbon tax.

    Cap n trade will be even a bigger con(shell)game than the one wall street used! Thus wasting more years before you admit it did NOTHING!

    So unless China,India,USA and others are on board it matters not,unless the targets are massive it matters not, unless the message from Richardson is heard and acknowledged and implemented it matters not.

    If indeed we miss his minimum targets by a mile then perhaps we should learn to adapt to climate change instead?

    Death of a speceies,so what,its happened before.

    No I am not trying to be glum, it is just that we won`t come anywhere near those targets,so it matters not,in fact I would guess that most likely emissions will be higher by 2020 not reduced by 80%(the minimum level to prevent irreversable climate change) according to Bill Henderson

    So unless Bill Henderson is wrong,lets set up the new farm belt in northern Canada.

    Cheers

    Grant G

    21 Oct 08 at 10:30 pm

  2. “And so it goes: lack of leadership, more mis-education, a dumber public, more time wasted … ”

    You fit right in there, Grant The Ranter. I would add ‘Naivete’ to the list.

    Henderson lamented the lack of focus on the science, and mentioned James Hansen, one of the world’s pre-eminent scientists, whose latest research predicts the total melting of the ice caps after we hit 450 parts per million of atmospheric carbon. We’re at 385 ppm right now (up from a stabile 250 ppm a century earlier), and it’s increasing at 2-3 ppm per year. That gives us 20 years if we’re lucky.

    How the hell do you limit yourself to “adapt” to a 10+ metre rise in sea level by mid-century? A 30+ metre rise by the end of this century? A further 50+ metres beyond? How do you adapt to drying up interior lakes and prairie rivers, the lifeblood of Canadian agriculture, and the mass conflagration of coastal and boreal forests (incidently, another tipping point with regard to pumping a horrendous amount of carbon into the atmosphere)?

    Farming in the arctic — on what, Canadian Shield granite? Melting permafrost? A four inch layer of scorched, dead pine and needles on top of sand and gravel?

    Productive prairie soils do not exist in the boreal forest and arctic, and are threatened by predicted dust bowl conditions by the time Gen Xers are in their 50s. My uncle lost 8 inches of top soil on his Northern Alberta farm during the 1930s alone, and he farmed organically. No amount of low-tilling and cover could stop it.

    Oh yeah, in reducing emissions we’re supposed to let the other guy go first, right?

    Well, there is evidence they will do exactly that. Both Obama and McCain have proposed policies to do far more about climate change than Harper ever will because he’s too busy suppressing climate science.

    And China, in case you haven’t heard, is amongst other things building high-speed rail and is very, very aware of the fate of Shanghai as seas rise, let alone the encroachment of the Gobi Desert into the windows of the Beijing Politburo. China and India cannot ever be accused of not knowing about the issue, and will probably take action in massive geoengineering projects, more sooner than later.

    There are answers. The best, in my view, combine curtailing GHG emissions and adaptation measures. But Canada will be left far, far behind on our present course.

    Meredith

    22 Oct 08 at 12:19 pm

  3. Meredith–Again you slag me,my comment was not a rant,You totally missed my point but you proved again how rude you are.

    If you read the article-Henderson states that targets of 80% reduction must be met as a MINUMUM BY 2020 TO AVOID IRREVERSABLE CLIMATE CHANGE.He goes on to state that tiny targets and bad policy will make matters worse!

    My comment was not a rant, you addressing me was the only rant, I would suggest that you formaly apoligize to me.
    You are obviously OUT OF YOUR ELEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO DEBATE.

    Your PATHETIC attack apon me proves that, I also think that that the owner of this blog should email you Meredith to explain to you what my comment was about as obviously you are incapable of deciphering, also someone should give you a lesson on manners!

    Grant G

    22 Oct 08 at 12:40 pm

  4. I welcome Stephen’s often complimentary messages.

    Rude … I wouldn’t say so. Sarcastic — sure. Satirical — absolutely!

    Getting back on topic, your rejection of almost every proposed measure to reduce emissions, to wait until other industrial nations have started the ball rolling on reductions, and to rely only on adpatation without really understanding what that means, deserves a little satire and sarcasm.

    Meredith

    22 Oct 08 at 1:17 pm

  5. Don`t backpeddle,apoligize.

    Your slag wasn`t satire, it was rude,period!

    Don`t think by throwing a straw man into the argument is fooling anyone, your rudeness was un-called for yet you refuse to apolagize.

    Perhaps Rude(meredith) you should wonder why the story was refused by major news media,perhaps if someone it explains it to you in —REALLY BIG LETTERS AND TALKS VERRRRY SLOWWWWWLLLLYYYY TOOOOOO YOOUUUU, YOU MIGHT JUST UNDERSTAND WHAT THE STORY SAID AND MEANT.

    Now perhaps you can un-clench your teeth apoligize and use your brain!

    Grant G

    22 Oct 08 at 1:43 pm

  6. My teeth are not clenched. I understand the issues perfectly well. And I have nothing to appologize for.

    Now, if you’re not going to get back on topic (Henderson … Hansen … climate change… remember?), then I’ll disengage from this pointless exchange before your patronizing tone changes into a full-scale eruption.

    What a waste of time.

    Meredith

    22 Oct 08 at 2:19 pm

  7. You can lead a horse to water? Or in this case a JACKASS.
    You still don`t get it, do you?

    I made no asertions one way or another–I was making an observation,you better hope Bill Richardson is wrong.

    What part of 80% minumum reduction requirement by 2020 don`t you understand,what part of irreversable don`t you understand.

    You were too busy flailing away at the keyboard to understand what my comment said, PLEASE IS THERE SOMEONE OUT THERE WHO CAN EXPLAIN IT TO RUDE MEREDITH?

    Grant G

    22 Oct 08 at 2:32 pm

  8. Yesterday was Media Democracy Day, which offered an excellent opportunity to see how biased and constrained our mainstream media is in Canada. You would understand why this piece didn’t get into a major daily and why this blog is so important. If you want to learn more about how undemocratic the media is here in Canada, I recommend going to http://democraticmedia.ca/. Net neutrality is also a current critical issue; see http://www.saveournet.ca/ for more info.

    Romeogolf

    26 Oct 08 at 12:05 pm

  9. You’re getting very shrill, Grant. It certainly doesn’t bolster your argument or benefit your credibility (i.e. lack thereof).

    Romeogolf

    26 Oct 08 at 12:08 pm

  10. Romeogolf—You don`t get it either do you? If you actually read what Bill Henderson said–Even Gore doesn`t shoot for targets that large,no goverment does,if indeed Henderson is right the targets must be massive.
    Not a stupid cap n trade shell game, not a useless Gordon Campbell carbon tax.
    Very large targets, like– 10% reduction in emissions every year,mandating 80% of the cars off the road,80% of the trucks.

    My point was –that you -umb-sses can figure out is this–”Oh were so happy that we have a carbon tax,honey go warm up the RV while I park the hummer in the garage.”

    Business news— ” The shill company made 155 million dollars selling carbon credits to its sister company Shell, and in another related story the Laforgery cement company although they could not reduce emissions they did manage to offset them by planting an estimated 5000 trees somewhere in the middle of the forest.”

    Obviously my words or letters weren`t big enough and or I did not talk slowwwww enougghhh for you (brain surgeons) too understand.

    cheers

    Grant G

    26 Oct 08 at 12:42 pm

  11. Actually Grant it is you who seems to be missing the point. Huge reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are necessary - and there is no realistic “business as usual with a little bit of conservation that will pay for itself anyway” approach. And as long as Canada continues its present path - increasing its emissions - we not only have zero credibility on the world stage we also expose ourselves to trade penalties in future from countries that are doing much better. As long as Canada and the US do not reduce emissions, countries like China and India will continue to use us as reasons why they are not going to co-operate.

    Carbon taxes are going to have to be part - but only part - of the solution. But fundamentally “late capitalism” has indeed collapsed under its own contradictions and we need to find a new way of organising ourselves.Not just Canada, the world but we could show some leadership for a change.

    Expressions that suggest that whatever Canada does makes no difference to the world are not exactly helpful, are they?

    And once again I remind you that this blog and its discussion area should be a place where everyone is treated with courtesy and respect. Those who cannot abide by this request will find that their comments get removed and do not appear in future.

    Stephen Rees

    26 Oct 08 at 2:52 pm

  12. None of you seem to get it, I am not trying to avoid reductions in GHGs,what I am saying is we have to have effective plan, not a bad carbon tax designed to appease people.
    Cap n trade in Europe has been a complete failure,emissions have gone up.

    Anyone who advocates “trading emissions” is fooling themselves.

    If we are going to shoot for a 20% reduction then so be it.

    Henderson stated that the minimum target has to be an 80% reduction,or we will have irreversable global warming!

    That is not my statement,that`s Henderson`s statement.

    If you expect to meet any substantial targets the only way to do it is—Mandatory reduction enforced by goverment.
    Mandatory reductions of big emissions from big polluters, 10% a year for a decade.
    Strict tailpipe standards throughout the lands,mandated clean car production, electric,hydrogen,solar whatever.
    Noboby is calling out goverments,nobody is exposing the fraud of Campbell`s carbon tax,nobody is exposing the fraud of trading emissions.

    Planting trees in BC doesn`t remove the emissions a cement makes!
    Things like trees and grasses will grow on their own, is there any bare patches of land in the forest?

    Suzuki,Weaver,Jaccard need to call these schemes what they are,SCHEMES if the problem is as grave as all you global warming advocates say it is,than you GWA should be shouting the loudest about these fraudulant schemes being pushed.

    Without a legitmate ,real,meaningful, GHG reduction plan all that will happen is you will waste a decade or more before you come up with a plan!

    As for being courteous,Meredith attacked me on my first post,without understanding the premise of my argument.
    And now you Mr. Rees have decided to take sides,merely because I am not a member of your little club.
    cheers

    Grant G

    26 Oct 08 at 4:04 pm

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